Yanayin Kasuwa na gaba don Kwantenan PV masu ninkawa

Kwantenan PV masu ninkawa suna samun karɓuwa a cikin manyan kasuwanni masu tasowa kamar ikon wucin gadi na masana'antu, wuraren hakar ma'adinai, abubuwan da suka faru, da aikace-aikacen soja, godiya ga ƙaƙƙarfan jigilar jigilar su, saurin tura rukunin yanar gizon, da ƙarfin ajiyar inverter / kuzari, yana ba da damar aikin toshe-da-wasa. Duk da yake hasashen kasuwa daga cibiyoyi daban-daban na iya bambanta ta hanyar dabara, dukkansu suna nuni zuwa ga ƙarshe "ci gaba mai sauri": ɓangaren "nanne" ana hasashen zai kai kusan dala miliyan 100 nan da 2030, tare da CAGR kusan 20.5%; Lokacin da aka faɗaɗa zuwa babban nau'in "kwantenan hasken rana/tsarin wutar lantarki na tushen kwantena," yawancin ƙididdiga suna aiwatar da ƙimar haɓakar mahalli na shekara-shekara na 12% -20%+, tare da girman kasuwa a cikin dubun biliyoyin daloli nan da 2030-2034. A gefen farashi, ana hasashen farashin tsarin baturi na lithium-ion zai ragu zuwa 115 USD/kWh (-20%) nan da shekarar 2024, yayin da farashin sassan ke ci gaba da raguwa, yana kara inganta kasuwanci.

1. Matsayin Kasuwa da Ma'auni na Sikeli

PV “Ƙunƙartaccen Baki” (Cikin nadawa da hanyoyin buɗewa)

QYResearch kiyasin: kusan dala miliyan 100 nan da 2030, tare da CAGR na 20.5% (2024-2030). Wannan rukunin da farko ya ƙunshi cikakken tsarin tare da nadawa hanyoyin da za a iya tura su cikin sauri.

Kwantenan Rana "Ma'anar Faɗaɗɗen Ma'anar" (Ciki har da ba nadawa, haɗaɗɗen shinge tare da ajiyar makamashi/inverters)

Cibiyoyi da yawa suna aiwatar da CAGRs masu kama daga 12% zuwa sama da 20%, tare da girman kasuwa na ƙarshe daga kusan $ 850 miliyan (2030) zuwa $ 25.51 biliyan (2034). Bambance-bambancen ya samo asali ne daga ko an haɗa ɓangarorin masu ƙarfi da kuma ko “ma'auni-mai amfani” ana lissafin hanyoyin wutar lantarki ta hannu.

Hoto 1 | Hasashen kasuwar kwantena mai naɗewa (bayanai dangane da bincike na QY: $100 miliyan nan da 2030, CAGR 20.5%)

Hoto 2 | Rage raguwar farashin tsarin batirin lithium-ion (tushen bayanai: BNEF)

Takaitaccen hasashen cibiyoyi da yawa don sassan kasuwa masu dacewa (CAGR da girman kasuwa)

1. Shaidu masu wuya uku don Ci gaba
2. An tabbatar da yanayin "ƙasa" a cikin farashi.

Modulolin hoto: Farawa a cikin 2023, ƙarfin ƙarfin duniya da manyan matakan ƙididdiga za su haifar da raguwar farashi mai yawa, tare da ƙarin raguwa da ake tsammanin a cikin 2024.

Batirin ajiya na makamashi: Bayanan BNEF ya nuna cewa fakitin baturi za su kai ga ƙananan tarihin $ 115 / kWh a cikin 2024. Ƙididdiga na BOM gaba ɗaya na tsarin "PV + Storage + Inverter + EMS" shine mabuɗin mahimmancin abin da ke haifar da ƙimar farashi-tasiri na kwantena masu ninkawa.

2. Fadada Side Buƙatu

Taimakon Gaggawa/ Bala'i da Aikace-aikacen Kashe-Grid: Ajiye, saurin tura wutar lantarki da rukunin ajiyar makamashi suna maye gurbin janareta na diesel, suna ba da fa'idodin muhalli, ƙarancin kulawa, da aiki shiru. Waɗannan mafita suna shiga cikin sauri cikin amincin jama'a, kayan aikin soja da na 'yan sanda, wuraren hakar ma'adinai, tashoshin bincike, da abubuwan wasanni.

Fadada saka hannun jari mai tsafta a duniya: IEA ta yi hasashen cewa jarin makamashi mai tsafta zai kai dala tiriliyan 2 a cikin 2024, tare da kusan dala biliyan 500 da aka ware don saka hannun jari na hotovoltaic. Rage farashi da haɓaka iya aiki a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki na sama za su ci gaba da amfana da sifofin samfur na hannu da na zamani.

3. Haɓaka Ƙarfin Samfur da Daidaitawa

Ƙarfi na yau da kullun kamar nadawa da buɗewa, saurin wayoyi, da saka idanu na nesa na EMS ana ci gaba da ƙididdige su, canzawa daga “kayan aikin injiniya” zuwa “daidaitattun abubuwan masana’antu,” suna ƙara haɓaka kewayon bayarwa da farashin rayuwa.

III. Daga "Samar Wutar Wuta" zuwa "Microgrid Mobile"

Taimakon Gwamnati da na Jin kai: Samar da wutar lantarki na wucin gadi da sifili-carbon da tallafin likita/ sadarwa a cikin sake ginawa bayan bala'i da yankunan da ke da karancin wutar lantarki na wucin gadi.

Wuraren Masana'antu/Gina: Sauya injinan dizal don rage kayan aikin mai, hayaniya, da hayaƙi; lokacin da aka haɗa su tare da ajiyar makamashi, yana ba da damar aske kololuwa da hasken dare.

Ma'adinai / Sansanonin / Soja: Babban motsi da ƙarancin dogaro ga kayayyaki, rage ƙimar ƙimar makamashi (LCOE) akan duk tsawon rayuwa.

Kasuwanci da Abubuwan da ke faruwa: Aiwatar da sauri da dawowa don abubuwan da suka faru, wasan kwaikwayo, da nune-nunen, saduwa da ESG da buƙatun sawun carbon.

1. Fassarar Tsarin Kasa, Dama a cikin "Sarrafa + Sabis"  

Akwai mahalarta duniya da yawa a cikin kwantena na hotovoltaic / makamashin ajiya, tare da kasuwa matsakaiciyar rarrabuwa: akwai kamfanoni masu sabbin abubuwa biyu da ke mai da hankali kan kuzarin kwantena da masana'antun da ke haɓaka ƙasa daga abubuwan da aka gyara, inverters, da BESS. -Wannan yana nufin cewa cibiyoyin sadarwar abokan haɗin gwiwa na yanki, saurin isarwa, ayyuka, da ƙirar hayar za su zama manyan bambance-bambance.

1. Hatsari da Katanga

Bambance-bambance a cikin ma'aunin ma'auni yana haifar da tarwatsa tsammanin tsammanin ma'auni: tsarin nadawa vs. babban kwantena, ko ya haɗa da manyan iko da hayar kayayyaki, da dai sauransu, dole ne a bayyana a fili a cikin tsarin kasuwanci.

Canje-canjen farashi na sama: Farashin azurfa, kayan siliki, da farashin kaya sun kasance marasa ƙarfi; duk da haka, gabaɗayan yanayin har yanzu yana dogara ga "rage yawan farashi na dogon lokaci."

Haɗin grid/cutarwa da takaddun shaida: Kasashe daban-daban suna da buƙatu daban-daban don haɗin grid na wayar hannu da ƙa'idodin aminci; gwaji, takaddun shaida, da ƙirar haɗin grid dole ne a kammala su a gaba a cikin ƙasar da ake fitarwa. VI. Shawarwari

1. Shawarwari ga Masu Kera/Tashoshi/Masu mallaka  

• Layin samfur mai taya biyu:

An tsara samfurin "Foldable Rapid Deployment" don al'amuran da suka dace kamar ayyukan ceto, abubuwan da suka faru, da sansanonin hakar ma'adinai;

An tsara samfurin "Container Container + Energy Storage" don samar da wutar lantarki na wucin gadi / haya na masana'antu, yana jaddada aminci da TCO.

• Bayar da haya maimakon tallace-tallace da Kwangilar Ayyukan Ayyukan Makamashi (EMC): Rage CapEx na abokan ciniki na lokaci ɗaya da haɓaka shigar kasuwa.
• EMS na tushen dandamali da Kulawa Mai Nisa: Daidaita tare da ƙirar hayar janareta na diesel "Gudanar da jiragen ruwa" don cimma ƙimar kayan aiki da ƙididdigewa.
• Takaddun shaida na Farko: Tabbatar da haɗin grid, amincin wuta, da ka'idodin amincin lantarki sun cika a kasuwannin da aka yi niyya daga farko don tabbatar da saurin isarwa.
• Bambance-banbance Sarkar Bayarwa: Kafa sarƙoƙi guda biyu don mahimman abubuwan haɗin gwiwa (modules, inverters, BESS) don yin shinge da jujjuyawar kewayawa.